Sunday, February 18, 2018

NATIONAL ETHOS: PROSPECTS FOR EUROPE ARE DIM

How do countries rank from a philosophical, cultural and economic perspective? We made an analysis of a number of countries based on a set of criteria resulting in a ratings model. It enables us to come to a prediction where these countries will be in the following 5 to 10 years.

UPDATE: Asia and Africa are fast growing continents. Until the turn of the century Africa was stagnant. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, its policy of financing of Marxist dictators took a hit. From thereon economic growth in most African countries took off (with the exception of Zimbabwe and Congo). The African population is young; success in the fight on AIDS has grown spectacularly. After initially tripling, population growth will eventually diminish once average income increases. North of the equator Africa is Islamic, while the south is largely Christian and animistic. In our analyses (scroll down) of national ethos we have seen that Islam in its most radical form inhibits prosperity. But led by President Sisi of Egypt and the Crown Prince MBS a reform movement has taken off that will gradually have its effect in the economies of the Middle East and North Africa.

With the heritage of British Commonwealth in institutions and common law, former British colonies in Africa are performing well, whereas former French and Belgian colonies are under performing. That could be attributed to the influence of European continental ethos. Nevertheless, with the shackles of Socialism removed, both Asia and the entire African continent have grown with leaps and bounds over the last decade. Incomes in Africa have doubled.


How different is the state of affairs in Europe. If its leaders are incapable of change, Europe's prospects are dim indeed. Under President Trump, economic growth in the US is skyrocketing. But what could Europe do? The Nordic and Rheinland models are no match for the upcoming Asian and African tigers. The eurocrats' arrogance based on past performance of national economies and their disdain for populists, stand in the way of much needed reform.


The bad news is, this it no longer solely a ideological, or even an economic issue: it is becoming a matter of security. President Trump understands that the old system performed well when the third world was stagnant. But in the future it will no longer do, economically as well as militarily. Western European leaders in the EU do not grasp this danger. The EU's view on China is ignorant: "All cultures being equal", the EU is in fact handing the interests of its nations and peoples to the Chinese Communist Party.





May 9, 2017


POMONEWS INDEX OF NATIONAL ETHOS


"Terra Incognita" and "Lady Liberty" by Romantic Realism artist Bryan Larsen. Buy his work here.

UPDATE:  The Index has been updated with Botswana (best performing African country) and Chile (best performing South American country).

We have given a number of countries a rating based on philosophical, cultural and economic perspectives. We used criteria like culture, the pervasiveness of Islam, the economy, the techconomy as well as number of other data sets. This has resulted in an index what the prospect for prosperity will be in the medium term given the current pathway that determines the national ethos.

Culture
As a standard we will use the timeless frase “Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness”. How deep rooted is this culture in the minds of the people?

Islam
This ideology and non-religion is one of the greatest threats of our time. The metric mostly hinges on one (non-racist!) politically incorrect question: how many Muslims will live in a country and how many will they still get? Also, if a country has a Muslim population, how strongly are Dawah and Islamic scripture, like Sahih al-Bukhari, restricted? (Prohibition can be lifted when the ideology is defeated and the war is won.)

Economy
For economic criteria we used a combination of different data. First the Heritage Economic Freedom Index. Secondly, current disposable income. Thirdly, economic year on year growth projections. But these criteria do not tell the full story. Entrepreneurial spirit, philosophy (Romantic versus Naturalist mentality) and the burden of regulation also play an important role.

Techconomy
We paid extra attention to the new economy, the part of the economy that has to do with the information age. Now and in the future new jobs and economic growth will come from activities like IT, internet, machine learning/artificial intelligence. But also from new biological information age technologies that are currently coming to fruition and are slowly taking root in mainstream culture, like DNA sequencing/editing, neural mapping, life extension technologies, etc.

The bottom line is this: countries with strong regulation in these areas (FCC and FDA for example) will be at a major disadvantage from countries that are less regulated. However, in both economic categories we will also take into consideration future size and output, not just regulation.

Other
Not everything fits into the above categories. We will not break them down specifically, but they are based on our analysis and on the long and deep experience of dissecting the fabrics of freedom and prosperity, we have at Pomonews.com.

Each category for each country gets a rating from 1/5 to 5/5. The average will then be converted to a rating (see rating model below).

The list will be updated as major changes occur.


ETHOS RANKING PER COUNTRY




Click for a larger image. *Seasteading 2019 Project. **Hoppe Time Preference Theory

Of course we are not determinist in nature and for better or worse conscious changes can be made. Here is an example for the different pathways in the Netherlands:

Pathways for the Netherlands*** :
  • Stay on current cultural and political/economic path (PM Mark Rutte VVD/PVDA coalition): will stay a 6.
  • Take strong cultural and political/economic measures (restrict Islamic immigration and Dawah, implement a light variant of Trumpism, or more political influence from non cartel parties PVV, VNL and FvD): will result in a 7.
  • Take very strong cultural and political/economic measures (ban Islam, end wrong political globalist influence, embrace Hong Kong/New Zealand like capitalist policies, strongly reduce the scope of the state, embrace a combination of Golden Era thinking and good Americana-like philosophy): will become an 8 or 8+.
  • Total revolution: embrace freedom and capitalism fully, start building special economic zones (zero tax, minimal regulation, zero healthcare regulation) everywhere in the country and on seasteads off the coasts and on offshore colonies (perfect historical fit for the Netherlands), and implement all previous tips about Islam, border policy, culture etc.: will become an 9 or higher.
  • Take a more Leftist path: the Netherlands would become a 5 or even worse.

Rating model:

A+    98-100+
A      93-97 
A-     90-92
B+    88-89
B      83-87
B-     80-82
C+    78-79
C      73-77
C-     70-72
D+    68-69
D      63-67
D-     60-62
F       59 & Below


First published: Feb. 14, 2017



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