Tuesday, March 4, 2014

War With Russia: the Prospects

The Ukraine military is mobilizing. Polish troops are on the move. The Russians are poised to annex the Crimea. Putin has announced military 'exercizes'

The Dnjepr River is running straight through Ukraine, north to south, cutting the country in two. 

In the geography of Ukraine one feature stands out: the Dnjepr River is dividing the country in a western and an eastern part. This is also the cultural border that separates Europe from Russia. Time for an indepth discussion with our military correspondent about the elephant in the room: what are the prospects should it come to war? 

The Ukraine army will not last very long against the might of the Russians. Their material is standard USSR issue. NATO military aid will be useless.

For strategic reasons alone Putin will not stop at taking the Crimea. He will surely also annex the eastern part of Ukraine proper, as the Russians did with parts of Abghasia, Georgia and the Arctic. 

Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, the Dnjepr river and Crimea form a perfect new 'wall' of separation. Ukraine is flat territory which will throw the defense back on neighboring countries like Poland, Slowakia, Hungary and Romania. The Ukraine is very hard to defend and will almost certainly be lost. 

Things are developing very rapidly: the Ukraine military is mobilizing and Polish troop movements have been reported. Some Ukraine top brass have defected to the Russians. On the short term the Russians will penetrate the mainland to the Dnjepr river and then consolidate for a while. 

The question is, will the EU and the US be willing to support the new Ukraine government, as promised during the time of the revolution on the Maidan Square?

Morale in the Russian troops is excellent: according to their logic they are going the fight the 'Nazis' for a second time. The EU armies are not motivated for this fight, if only because of the nature of the new political bloc which lacks any national consciousness.

Putin isn't hampered by the pomo mindset: his loyalty is to Russia only and he only cares for Russian interests. He's never made any bones about the fact he considers the loss of the Soviet Union is grave mistake. This scheme in conjuncture with the Sochi Olympics has been in the works for years.

Putin understands the nature of power. Someone must hold the hegemony: a power vacuum does not exist. Therefore it is important the good guys are in power, but regrettably Obama has sold out the Pax Americana. 

The EU and certainly Obama have not understood the concept of "Si vis pacem, para bellum" (if you want peace, prepare for war). Just a week before this crisis broke Obama announced he will reduce the US military to pre WWII levels.

Putin is an autocrat, a modern czar. He's doesn't have to answer to anyone. This is not the case in the democratic West. As was the case in 1930-40 the voters believe in peace without a price through endless negotiations and compromises with evil. 

Chamberlain went to Munich to parley with Herr Hitler for "peace for our time". The Dutch army was so much downgraded when the Germans marched in, it's a miracle they lasted as long as they did. 

Demoralization is the essence of decadence. And decadent civilizations crumble because they are sitting ducks for assertive absolutists who have no doubt about the morality of their interests.