Saturday, February 22, 2014

Ukraine: the History, the Background, the Future

After the battles in Kiev this week let's have an indepth look at the historical and geopolitical background of Ukraine and its position in the world

Geopolitical background by Caspian Report for Meydan TV

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 a paradigm shift in the geopolitical situation took place. US Foreign Policy advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote: "Without Ukraine Russia is just another Asian power. Should Russia regain control over the buffer state with its 52 million inhabitants, its natural resources and Black Sea ports, Russia will again become a regional superpower stretching from Europe to the Pacific.

Continental Europe's security core consists of France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine. The unfolding of history this week in Ukraine can't be very well understood without this background: Ukraine must be brought into the Western fold, one way or another.

Brzezinski at the time personally attended debates in the Parliament in Kiev in order to oversee that process. He was successful up to a point: in 1997 President Kuchma signed a Charter of Partnership with NATO. In that year Ukraine received 47 million dollar towards financing the military cooperation.

In 1997 and in 1998 in the Black Sea port of Odessa navy exercizes with the code name Sea Breeze took place comprising vessels from Ukraine, the US, Turkey, Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Greece. Ukraine has joined the GUUAM Pact under auspices of NATO which comprises Georgia, Uzbekistan, Azerbeijan and Moldova. Ukraine contributed 1,700 troops to the war in Iraq.

The US is pumping money into the country. Lately as much as 5 billion dollars. The people want change. A covert propaganda and operations machine was created for the purpose of spreading the postmodern version of liberty and democracy. It's an alliance between George Soros and a number of NGOs: the National Democratic Institute (Democrats), the International Republican Institute (Republican), USAid (State Dept.) and Freedom House.

The current upheavals in Ukraine can be seen as a continuation of a number of similar operations in the Middle East, known as Arab Spring. Due to the specific character of Islamic counties these operations failed. Mainly because of the West's mistake to cast the Muslim Brotherhood as the 'moderate' partner for 'democracy'. Which was really naive, and a decision the West has come to regret (The Chickens From Syria Are Coming Home to Roost).

During the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004-2005 Freedom House and the National Democratic Institute have educated and financed thousands of observers who conducted exit polls. These proved that the candidate who supported the West, Yushenko, won the elections.  The team who supported Russia, of current President Yanukovych, had been committing voting fraud.

Soros has also founded the Vozrozjdenije fund, meaning renaissance, or rebirth. Before the last elections the fund channeled huge sums of money to the sympathetic media. The American organizations and Soros supported thousands of activists with money, clothing and training. (Source)

The United States and the European Union have become party to the conflict in Ukraine and America is a central part of everything that is going on. The western part of Ukraine has become a new West Berlin, drawing leaders to impudently protest, in public, under Vladimir Putin's guns, trampling on his flower beds in Russia's very back garden.

It is not the West's responsibility, of our brave young men and women in the military, to go to Ukraine to confront Putin's army in battle. But Ukraine is a nation of people so determined to defy dictatorship and fight for their freedom even when the odds are grim, that we must join them and fight on their side in some way.

The West must do something substantial, something that materially affects the situation on the ground--something that begins to change the strategic advantages that Russia has over all of its smaller, liberal neighbors. A really good idea would be a Warsaw Pact--this time as an Eastern European alliance against Russia.

Because of America's deep cultural, political, and strategic connection to it, Poland can reasonably count on a major commitment of US military power--including public acceptance of significant and painful military losses--in the event of a Russian invasion. America should exploit our deep military commitment to Poland by encouraging the Poles to serve as the anchor for a new Eastern European military alliance; an alliance that is independent of NATO.

An independent alliance between Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Georgia, and Ukraine--an inverse Warsaw Pact--would be a tremendous asset to liberty. With Poland at its base (protected by its NATO membership and the US nuclear umbrella), this alliance could be a strong deterrent to Russia's renewed military expansionism.

The new Warsaw Pact should be made up only of republics that are truly on the edge--the countries between NATO and what Russia sees as its buffer states. A group of nations in such a difficult place, led by a secure country that is a full member of NATO and assisted by the United States, would be far more willing to use military force than the fratricidal and self-loathing nations of NATO as a whole.

An Eastern European alliance will produce a far more intense threat and a far more substantial deterrent against Russia--especially if its anchor member, Poland, either has the full strategic commitment of the United States behind it or its own independent nuclear deterrent. A core cultural goal right now should be to clear some of the woolly-headed European pacifism from the minds of Eastern Europe's leadership.

They need nuclear weapons. Without them, the Russians will be free to probe their border provinces with strong tank and mechanized infantry forces and bomb any defenders that move against them, destroying towns and cities everywhere along their borders from the Baltic to the Caspian.

Without nuclear weapons, ineffective resistance to a series of military incursions will enable the Russians to work themselves up to a murderer's only concept of self-confidence: the sense that he can get away with it. When that day comes, Russia will invade and occupy its smaller neighbors.

Nuclear weapons proliferation is a good thing--when the good guys get nuclear weapons. The good nations that border Russia should get them as quickly as they can. And the United States of America should help them.  (Source)